Modeling of vaccination and contact tracing as control tools for Covid-19 in Spain

    According to a computer model from the University of Lleida, IREC and the Hospital Clínic de Barcelona, ​​protection measures would reduce Covid-19 infections by 19% more than vaccination alone.


    Researchers from the University of Lleida (UdL), in collaboration with scientists from the Instituto de Investigación en Recursos Cinegéticos (IREC – CSIC, UCLM, JCCM) and the Hospital Clínic de Barcelona, ​​have developed a computational model to decipher the effects of vaccination and social protection measures against the Covid-19, taking Spain as a case study.

    Based on the fact that it is vital to identify strategies that allow the resumption of economic and social activities, protecting life and health systems, scientists have used computer models P-System, which carry out calculations using biologically inspired processes. These models, which until now have not been used in human epidemiology, have served in this case to assess the effects of vaccination and the tracing of contacts with positive Covid-19 at the population level under different epidemiological scenarios and protection measures ( social distancing, use of masks and hand hygiene).

     

    Screened on the Cappont campus (Photo: University of Lleida).

    The results of the model, which have been published in the international journal Vaccines, show that reinforcing vaccination with protective measures would reduce infections by an additional 19%. On the other hand, they suggest that without the application of these measures, in a simulation period of 80 days, 56% of the Spanish population would contract the disease with a mortality of 0,4%. Assuming that 20% of the population was protected by vaccination at the end of the summer of 2021, the model calculates that at least 45% would have contracted the disease with a mortality rate of 0,3%. Both percentages would be significantly reduced after the adoption of social measures, especially in combination with the tracing of at least 40% of contacts.

    The model also shows that if 40% of the population can be vaccinated, even without social protection measures, the percentage of people who contract the disease would go from 56% to 34% and that of fatalities from 0,41% to 0,16. .XNUMX%, compared to an unvaccinated population. With additional measures, the figures would drop to 14,5% of those infected, 19% less, and mortality would drop to 0,10%..

    The scientific publication of this research is available at:

    The new computational model developed for SARS-CoV-2 using the available epidemiological information can be found at: